The Predictions Of Experts

From Learning How to Think by Nicholas D. Kristof:

The predictions of experts were, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses — the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.

“It made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience,” Mr. Tetlock wrote.

Indeed, the only consistent predictor was fame — and it was an inverse relationship. The more famous experts did worse than unknown ones. That had to do with a fault in the media. Talent bookers for television shows and reporters tended to call up experts who provided strong, coherent points of view, who saw things in blacks and whites. People who shouted — like, yes, Jim Cramer!

Mr. Tetlock called experts such as these the “hedgehogs,” after a famous distinction by the late Sir Isaiah Berlin (my favorite philosopher) between hedgehogs and foxes. Hedgehogs tend to have a focused worldview, an ideological leaning, strong convictions; foxes are more cautious, more centrist, more likely to adjust their views, more pragmatic, more prone to self-doubt, more inclined to see complexity and nuance. And it turns out that while foxes don’t give great sound-bites, they are far more likely to get things right.

This was the distinction that mattered most among the forecasters, not whether they had expertise. Over all, the foxes did significantly better, both in areas they knew well and in areas they didn’t.

The Future Is Now Past

I’m glad that someone at Foreign Policy has been paying attention.

From The 10 Worst Predictions for 2008:

1. “Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary.” —William Kristol

2. “Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” —Jim Cramer

3. “…only a naval power of the United States’ strength could seriously disrupt oil shipments.” —Dennis Blair and Kenneth Lieberthal

4. “[A]nyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own private definition of ‘recession.’” —Donald Luskin

5. “For all its flaws, an example to others.” —The Economist on Kenya’s presidential election

6. “Arizona’s maverick senator, John McCain, will end up the country’s next President.” –BusinessWeek

7. “These events have the potential to fundamentally alter matter and destroy our planet.” —Walter Wagner

8. “The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months.” —Arjun Murti

9. “It starts with the taking over of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which has already happened. It goes on to the destruction of the Georgian armed forces, which is now happening. The third [development] will probably be the replacement of the elected government, which is pro-Western, with a puppet government, which will probably follow in a week or two.” —Charles Krauthammer

10. “I believe the banking system has been stabilized. No one is asking themselves anymore, is there some major institution that might fail and that we would not be able to do anything about it.” —Henry Paulson

Maybe we should pay less attention to all of these people in the future.

Some of these people I am not familiar with. Some of them, such as William Kristol, Jim Cramer, Charles Krauthammer, Henry Paulson, and even BusinessWeek; I’ve never much cared for. Only arrogant fools think they can predict the future.