Thursday, November 6, 2008

Slim Odds For Sara Palin

From History suggests Palin's political future is dim by Joshua Spivak:

Though Sarah Palin's vice presidential run came to a losing end on Tuesday, many of her supporters are already touting her as a candidate in 2012.

Despite her poor performance in the media and in some polls, Palin, unlike McCain or the other Republican primary candidates, managed to excite the party's conservative base.

But history has a cruel lesson for anyone counting on her presidential aspirations: the losing vice presidential candidate has usually met the end of the line for a national office run.

Based on recent history, this may seem counterintuitive. After all, the winning vice presidential candidate is handed a gilded path to the nomination. Since 1952, seven of 11 vice presidents have gained their parties' presidential nomination in the next election. There is an obvious reason for this -- the vice president is running effectively as incumbent, cloaked under the mantle of the previous president. The vice president has also managed to stay in the public eye for the last four or eight years, gaining invaluable name recognition and respect from the party faithful.

But the losers have a sadder story to tell. Throughout the entirety of American history, only three losing vice presidential candidates have managed to ever come back and win their parties' nomination. And all three have exceptional stories.
Read the rest here.

3 comments - Post a comment :

patrick said...

If Palin runs for President in 2012, at least she has name recognition going for her... but, at this point, that may not work in her favor

Paul Thoreau said...

Patrick:
Thank you for your comment. You make me chuckle.

Paul Thoreau said...

Ooops. I meant to write: You made me chuckle.

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